By Chad Wade – Owner, Consultant, and the Guy Who Can Tell You If Your Shop Will Make It
2025 isn’t going to be “just another year” for the smoke shop industry.
This is a turning point year — the kind where owners either adapt and make record profits, or sit still and get swallowed by laws, competition, and changing customers.
If you’re not paying attention, you’re going to get blindsided.
Here’s what’s coming — and how to stay on the winning side of it.
Here’s what’s coming — and how to stay on the winning side of it.
1. Regulation Is About to Get Even Uglier
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More states are passing blanket bans on Delta-8, Delta-10, and other synthetics.
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Nicotine disposable bans are spreading from big cities into small-town markets.
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The FDA is laser-focused on emerging cannabinoids like 7-OH and THCP.
Prediction: By the end of 2025, at least half of the country will have significant restrictions on what’s been the bread and butter for many shops.
Move: You need to diversify your catalog now — before your number one seller is illegal overnight.
2. Botanical Alternatives Will Boom
I’m already seeing customers shift toward:
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Blue Lotus products (pre-rolls, teas, tinctures)
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Kava blends for social relaxation
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Low-risk kratom alternatives with wellness-focused branding
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Herbal smoke blends marketed for “aroma” and “ritual use”
Prediction: These will be the fastest-growing SKUs of 2025, especially in states hitting cannabinoids hard.
Move: Test small batches now, dial in your suppliers, and own the category in your market before your competitors even hear about it.
3. Impulse Items & Lifestyle Goods Will Become Profit Lifelines
If customers can’t buy their favorite vape or hemp product, they’ll still buy:
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Stoner snacks
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Branded grinders, trays, and merch
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Incense, candles, and room sprays
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Local artist glass pieces
Prediction: Accessory-heavy smoke shops will weather product bans way better than vape-heavy shops.
Move: Add lifestyle shelving to your shop. Train your team to upsell non-consumables with every transaction.
4. The Marketing Game Is Changing — Fast
Social media platforms are getting pickier about cannabis-adjacent content.
That means organic reach is shrinking unless you:
That means organic reach is shrinking unless you:
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Post daily with trending short-form videos
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Build email and SMS lists (so you own your audience)
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Use Discord or private communities for unrestricted communication
Prediction: Shops relying only on Instagram will see traffic drop. Shops with multiple channels will thrive.
Move: Get your customer list built now. Start texting them. Start your own private group.
5. The Big Winners Will Be the Shops That Feel Like Brands
By the end of 2025, the average customer will have 3+ smoke shops within driving distance.
Why should they choose yours?
If your store looks like a flea market — they won’t.
If it feels like a destination with personality — they will.
If it feels like a destination with personality — they will.
Prediction: Stores with a clear identity (branding, displays, events, exclusives) will become the “go-to” in their market.
Move: Audit your shop right now. If your signage, lighting, and vibe are generic, change it. Fast.
The 2025 Survival Checklist
Diversify your product mix (Botanicals, lifestyle, accessories)
Build an email/SMS list
Upgrade your store branding and layout
Follow industry news weekly
Train your staff to sell more than just what customers came in for
Build an email/SMS list
Upgrade your store branding and layout
Follow industry news weekly
Train your staff to sell more than just what customers came in for
Final Word:
2025 is not the year to “wait and see.”
It’s the year to move and own your lane.
It’s the year to move and own your lane.
Every market will have winners and losers.
The winners will plan now.
The losers will wish they had.
The losers will wish they had.
Which side you’re on is up to you.